Adaptive Neuro – Fuzzy Inference Systems – An Alternative Forecasting Tool for Prosumers

Otilia DRAGOMIR¹, Florin DRAGOMIR¹, Veronica ȘTEFAN², Eugenia MINCĂ¹
¹Automation, Computer Science and Electrical Engineering Department,
Valahia University of Târgovişte,
2, Carol I Blvd., Târgoviște, 130024, Romania
drg_otilia@yahoo.com, drg_florin@yahoo.com
²Faculty of Economic Sciences,
Valahia University of Târgovişte,
2 Carol I Bd., Târgovi te, 130024, Romania
veronica.stefan@ats.com.ro, minca.eugenia@gmail.com

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to propose a forecasting tool to producers/ consumers (prosumers) of renewable energy sources, based on artificial intelligence techniques, trying to obtain optimal predictions. The exploration and the assessment of the criteria used for choosing the adequate forecasting tool are made in the artificial intelligence context. In this respect, firstly, the criteria used for choosing the best forecasting technology, in relation to each step of the modelling process are presented. Secondly, the identified criteria are tested on two Adaptive Neuro- Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models, in order to underline the effects of these users’ decisions over the forecasting performances.

Keywords: Forecasting, Neural Network, Adaptive Neuro – Fuzzy Inference Systems, Prosumers.

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CITE THIS PAPER AS:
Otilia DRAGOMIR, Florin DRAGOMIR, Veronica ȘTEFAN, Eugenia MINCĂ, Adaptive Neuro – Fuzzy Inference Systems – An Alternative Forecasting Tool for Prosumers, Studies in Informatics and Control, ISSN 1220-1766, vol. 24 (3), pp. 351-360, 2015. https://doi.org/10.24846/v24i3y201511