A Framework for Chemical Plant Safety Assessment under Uncertainty

Xiaoyan ZENG, Mihai ANIŢESCU
Mathematics and Computer Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue, Building 221, Argonne, IL 60439-4844, U.S.A

Candido PEREIRA, Monica REGALBUTO
Chemical Sciences and Engineering Division, Argonne National Laboratory
9700 South Cass Avenue, Building 205, Argonne, IL 60439-4837, U.S.A

Abstract: We construct a framework for assessing the risk that the uncertainty in the plant feed and physical parameters may mask the loss of a reaction product. To model the plant, we use a nonlinear, quasi-steady-state model with stochastic input and parameters. We compute the probability that more than a certain product amount is diverted, given the statistics of the uncertainty in the plant feed, in the values of the chemical parameters, and in the output measurement. The uncertainty in the physical parameters is based on the one provided by the recently developed concept of thermochemical tables. We use Monte Carlo methods to compute the probabilities, based on a Cauchy-theorem-like approach to avoid making anything but the safest asymptotic assumptions, as well as to avoid the excessive noise in the region of low-probability events.

Keywords: Safety Assessment, Uncertainty, Chemical Process, Stream Methane Reforming, Active Thermochemical Tables, Monte Carlo Methods.

Xiaoyan Zeng has received the Bachelor degree in Applied Mathematics in 2000 and the Master degree in Applied Mathematics in 2003 in Wuhan University. She obtained the PhD in Applied Mathematics of Illinois Institute of Technology in 2008. She is currently working as a postdoctoral fellow in Mathematics and Computer Science Division at Argonne National Laboratory. Her research interests are in the areas of Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods, stochastic optimization and spline methods.

Mihai Aniţescu has obtained his Engineer (M.Sc.) Diploma in electrical engineering from the Polytechnic University of Bucharest in 1992 and his Ph.D. degree in applied mathematical and computational sciences from the University of Iowa in 1997. Between 1997 and 1999 he was the Wilkinson fellow in computational science in the Mathematics and Computer Science Division at Argonne National Laboratory. Between 1999 and 2002 he was an assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Pittsburgh, where he is currently an adjunct associate professor. Since 2002, he has been a computational mathematician In the Mathematics and Computer Science Division At Argonne National Laboratory. Dr. Anitescu is a Senior Editor for Optimization Methods and Software and a member of the editorial boards of Mathematical Programming series A. a series B. In 2009, Dr. Anitescu will be the member of the Organizing Committees of the SIAM Annual Meeting and of the International Symposium on Mathematical Programming.

Candido Pereira received his PhD in Chemical Engineering from the University of Pennsylvania. He is currently a Principal Engineer at Argonne National Laboratory where he leads the Process Simulation and Equipment Design Group, which develops computer codes and equipment designs for the treatment of spent nuclear fuel. He has been at Argonne since 1992, he has also worked on the Integral Fast Reactor program and on the development of hydrocarbon reforming systems for fuel cell applications.

Monica Regalbuto received her PhD in Chemical Engineering from Notre Dame University. She is currently Head of the Process Chemistry and Engineering Department, responsible for programmatic and financial management. She manages the activities of three research groups conducting research on spent fuel separations, process modeling and simulation, and repository waste form corrosion. Prior to joining Argonne she was a Senior Research Engineer at BP Amoco where she developed new technologies to reduce pollutants from gasoline combustion; she was also responsible for all separation needs at four refineries. In an earlier stint at Argonne, she developed material balance, solvent loading and speciation computer models for the TRUEX Program.

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CITE THIS PAPER AS:
Xiaoyan ZENG, Mihai ANIŢESCU, Candido PEREIRA, Monica REGALBUTO, A Framework for Chemical Plant Safety Assessment under Uncertainty, Studies in Informatics and Control, ISSN 1220-1766, vol. 18 (1), pp. 7-20, 2009.