Past Issues

Studies in Informatics and Control
Vol. 10, No. 4, 2001

A Scenario Methodology as Connectability From Strategy to Operation in Complex System

D. A Kononov, S. A. Kosyacbenko, V. V. Kul'ba
Abstract

We introduce a new scientific project, which is supposed to create a new effective semiautomatic tool. It's expected to be used for analysis and synthesis of complex social and economic systems. A new principle named «scenario methodology» was developed in order to create this tool. It was used the subject-object methodology to describe the behavior of the system object. It was constructed as formalized event, situation, scenario, principles and methods to define topological structures. create scenario characters, and indicate its properties. There was constructed a spectrum of scenario spaces to represent different management fields: technical, technological, organization, economic, lawful and etc. It was defined as scenario operations in scenario space. Tims, scenario calculus was created. The applied areas are quite wide: a management to provide ecology security; researching sociological and economic system; scheduling and planning; working out effective technology for Production and Logistics; real steps of financial crises; effective strategies for investments and others. Advance imitation system of decision-making supporting based on the scenario methodology has been developed.

Keywords

scenario, control, stability

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