Practitioners and researchers in engineering, physical, biological, economic, natural and social sciences are all concerned with the analysis of a sequence of observed data. The desirable goal of such a quantitative analysis of data is to provide a succint but informative definition of the underlying system in the form of a mathematical model. This model can be used to analyse the system and predict its behaviour under a changing environment. The information yielded by an analysis can further be employed to alter possible factors and variables in the system to achieve an optimal performance. This book deals with system modelling and forecasting based on an ordered sequence of observed data. Unlike an earlier book of the authors, called: Time Series: Theory and Methods, referred to as TSTM, the present book has as prerequisites only a knowledge of basic calculus, matrix algebra and elementary statistics, being intended for upper-level undergraduate students and beginning graduate students.
by Peter J. Brockwell and Richard A. Davis
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