The problem considered in this paper is that of selecting, from a larger set of project proposals, a subset of projects (a portfolio of projects) to be implemented. The set of project proposals is divided into several subsets of equivalent projects. The project proposals within these subsets may present different levels of performance, the cost for their implementation may be different and they may use resources at different levels. It is desired to find a portfolio of projects from the set of competing projects proposals which contains only one project from each subset, meets all the requirements concerning the resources constraints, maximize the performance (benefits) and minimize the risk. In second section we present several approaches to the project selection problem. In the third section we present an original zero-one mathematical programming model for project selection problem under risk and limited resources which represent a version of a previous model from (Radulescu and Radulescu, 2001). Our model includes several resources and experts’ opinions which generate the risk. The project risk is greater if experts’ opinions have a greater degree of dispersion. Several versions of the model are discussed. In the fourth section is presented a decision support system (DSS), which we have named PROSEL (PROject analysis and SELection system) to assist managers in making high quality project portfolio selections.
project selection, mathematical programming, decision theory, decision support systems, risk.
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